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China electrolytic aluminum industry has a long way to go

Recently, the problem of overcapacity in the Chinese electrolytic aluminum has been widely hot, opinions vary in without exception that a consensus: the elimination of backward production capacity and inhibition of total capacity continues its rapid development has become China's electrolytic aluminum industry over the next five years, the main task of. China nearly 3 years of electrolytic aluminum supply and demand relations from a single point of view, the 2007 electric solution aluminum consumption 1234.7 million tons, yield 1255.9 million tons, consumption in 2008 864.8 million tons, the output 934.9 million tons, 2009 electrolytic aluminum consumption 711.9 million tons, the production amount of 780.6 million tons. Whether it is before the 2008 financial crisis and post crisis era, Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry has always existed overcapacity worries. If we open the horizon, throughout the world, electrolytic aluminum production capacity change and the main producing areas in relation to variation, originally Wang Ling side peaks of electrolytic aluminum industry in China will will it on the other side show in front of you. In the global aluminum industry, like the balance of supply and demand in the market, regional market forces change undercurrents.


In recent 10 years, the global electrolytic aluminum market is basically in a state of steady growth, the balance of supply and demand, there is no serious excess or shortage of output. And if the entire market area for analysis, electrolytic aluminum regional market change is still very obvious.
Through from 2003 to 2010 global production capacity of electrolytic aluminum expansion of regional data, we can see that China's production capacity expansion tensor is region's largest, reached the 1668.4 million tons, followed by the Middle East region, 178.7 million tons new capacity, third place for India, expanding the capacity of 101.6 million tons, in addition, Russia, Scandinavia electrolytic aluminum production capacity expanding mass is also very significant. And Western Europe, North America and other places electrolytic aluminum production capacity has decreased, the North American electrolytic aluminum production capacity is the most serious, for 92.4 tons, Western Europe production capacity has shrunk by 8.2 tons. North America, Western Europe, the phenomenon of shrinking production capacity is basically derived from the old production capacity.


From 2010 to 2014, the global expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity will still prefer China, Russia, India, northern Europe and other regions. China to 2014 electrolytic aluminum production capacity will also expand 38.29 million tons, Russia, India, the Middle East, Nordic capacity expansion were 151.7 million tons, 70 million tons, 32 million tons, growth of 13 million tons and North America, Western Europe and other developed areas of capacity is almost a shrink further, according to research data Brookhurt mechanism of the. According to this data, we can clearly see the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is making strides to the electrolytic aluminum production of low cost area transfer. After 2014, the world will change the pattern of electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production center of gravity will be completely moved to the east of the world.
Cost analysis shows that the center of gravity eastward


Simple cost analysis of electrolytic aluminum production can be seen, alumina and energy prices are the main components of the cost of electrolytic aluminum production. In the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, alumina raw material costs accounted for 33% of the total cost, the greater the proportion of energy costs accounted for 39 percent, labor costs accounted for only 6%, other production cost of raw materials accounted for 13%, and the remaining 9% is must produce the other costs.


Look at the next 5 years, the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in several key areas, without exception, have a unique energy or resource advantage. Russia and Northern Europe have cheap hydroelectric energy, which makes them engaged in high energy consumption of electrolytic aluminum production occupies a incomparable advantage; the Middle East as just the rise of the region, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates two electrolytic aluminum plant using local inexhaustible oil resources for power generation, greatly reduces the energy cost; Indian bauxite although the reserves are not the biggest, but the taste of the ore is quite high, rich in gibbsite boehmite resources to other major producing areas in the aluminum electrolysis coveted, cheap labor is also effective in reducing the ore mining cost. Look at China, the huge reserves of mineral resources, the vast western region of coal, electricity and water resources are rich and cheap is the main reason for the rapid expansion of production capacity in recent 10 years. The first few years of investment inertia will result in the market saturation, the future production capacity will be further expanded rapidly. The global aluminum industry center eastward phenomenon will become more apparent.

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